Oct 11, 2022·edited Oct 11, 2022Liked by Bennett Murray
Liked the post, I have been making similar arguments! The difference between pro-Russian sentiment and secession is shown in International Republican Institute and Pew polls of 2014, both made after the Maidan revolution. In the east, a majority wanted to join the Russian customs union, have Russian as a joint official language and have a positive attitude towards Russia. However, allowing regions to secede from Ukraine polled 18% in the east.
I disagree with the idea that you can infer a shift in public opinion based on Zelensky's support in the election. He campaigned for negotiations with the Russian government, presumably this means allowing for some autonomy in Donbas. A slight majority wants to either succeed or become an autonomous republican inside a Ukrainian state, according to research by Ivan Katchanovski.
How would you go about learning about preferences and voting behaviour in Ukraine today? Many KIIS polls on separatism appear to be sampling on the dependent variable by not surveying separatist or Russian-controlled areas. Further, does the threat of violence from both sides make honest answers hard to obtain?
A useful essay. I hadn't seen the 2019 first round map before. It shows, though, that the Donbass *was* opposition territory. That's not Zap-Cher, but it's important.
Liked the post, I have been making similar arguments! The difference between pro-Russian sentiment and secession is shown in International Republican Institute and Pew polls of 2014, both made after the Maidan revolution. In the east, a majority wanted to join the Russian customs union, have Russian as a joint official language and have a positive attitude towards Russia. However, allowing regions to secede from Ukraine polled 18% in the east.
I disagree with the idea that you can infer a shift in public opinion based on Zelensky's support in the election. He campaigned for negotiations with the Russian government, presumably this means allowing for some autonomy in Donbas. A slight majority wants to either succeed or become an autonomous republican inside a Ukrainian state, according to research by Ivan Katchanovski.
How would you go about learning about preferences and voting behaviour in Ukraine today? Many KIIS polls on separatism appear to be sampling on the dependent variable by not surveying separatist or Russian-controlled areas. Further, does the threat of violence from both sides make honest answers hard to obtain?
https://www.iri.org/wp-content/uploads/legacy/iri.org/2014%20April%205%20IRI%20Public%20Opinion%20Survey%20of%20Ukraine,%20March%2014-26,%202014.pdf
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/05/08/chapter-1-ukraine-desire-for-unity-amid-worries-about-political-leadership-ethnic-conflict/
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23745118.2016.1154131?journalCode=rpep21
A useful essay. I hadn't seen the 2019 first round map before. It shows, though, that the Donbass *was* opposition territory. That's not Zap-Cher, but it's important.
My own thoughts are at:
https://ericrasmusen.substack.com/p/good-and-bad-reasons-why-the-united
I support Ukrainia, but for other reasons.